Increasing The Probability of Startup Successes

By Omkar Nisal on June 27, 2013 26 Comments / 2978 views

Last year end I was a contractor to an IT Startup in Pune and then I was hired full-time with a pay hike in the same company. Client of this company even offered me stock options to stay and of course this company gave me a better job title. I had got another job offer and I asked my manager what I should do, and he said to me,if he were me he would stay for long term than looking at short term benefits.

Fast forward to last week.. during my paternity leave for my second baby, I was fired on account of non performance!

(I have a gut feeling that since they lost couple of clients for which I was hired, they can no longer afford me… anyways, should anyone care? )

Whatever it is, I am eternally grateful to this company for waking me up as soon as I was about to slip into comfortable monthly salary mode. 🙂

I am contemplating jumping back in to entrepreneurship ride ( I no longer want to push myself to continue the Just-Obey-Boss thingy.) But I am still a bit hesitant.. here is why:

Today while I was listening to an audio book in which I heard about the laws of probabilities.. ( no matter how many times you flip a coin the probability of heads/tails is 50% each and every time no matter how many time you flip it) and that we all should constantly work to increase this probability in our favor in every dimension of life.

50% is still astronomically high probability for startup success, but you get my point.

Hmmmmm….

Since I keep on hearing that probability of success for a startup is pretty low (and after good 4 startup failures in my life already).. I kept on wondering how we could increase this probability.

Here are some of my observations and thoughts in this context:

Most wannabe entrepreneurs have either no idea or too many ideas to work on when they think of starting an enterprise. [ I’m guilty of later ]

Even if they single out any particular idea for their venture .. quite often than not the product/service they are offering may not be needed in the market (at least in their geography). [No body wanted my product which helps blind people sense colored digital images via sound. and its not packaged properly as a product. My failed social enterprise.]

Assuming the right product for the right market is selected.. the pricing & packaging /format invariably needs serious improvement /rethinking.

Assuming all is well .. marketing & selling of the product / service .. the most critical part is often overlooked / done poorly / no money left will the time earlier points are taken care of. [Guilty again. My hospital staff training business did not scale up and fizzled out cuz of this ]

Since most startups would do lot better if they have success in their first venture. ( The extremely steep learning curve would flatten a bit at least.)

Often startups run out of money even before they can find and complete their first order [Gulp. Guilty again. My food manufacturing machine never fully got completed, let alone complete a single order. ]

So here is my idea –

What if successful companies list out products and services they already use / would surely need to have in immediate future?

Some companies might even be willing to extend support in terms of guidance and specific knowledge needed for an entrepreneur to start a new venture to provide the successful company with the product/service.

One may ask.. Why would they do that?

Well, simply to get more choices of suppliers, probably even their first supplier which they wish it existed.

But play with me for a bit and assume that companies do share such information with us just to help startup community. I know many Rodinhooders would at least.

So assuming the companies do give this info..

How would it help?

In simple words:

Boosting the probability of success of a startup and here are some more details:

Entrepreneur’s probability of selection of right product /service , in right market goes up drastically.

Huge Time saving for singling out practically working options .. so start of result producing actions could be sooner. Precious .

Knowing the specifics of service /product would help in costing and pricing so much more.

Time will not be wasted trying to figure out the best strategy and medium for promotions and sale. (at least initially)

Hopefully since this setup is B2B, the very first client could be a repeat business. If that happens, it would give the startup far more time and space to stabilize.

Since this is need driven startup product/service, its quite likely that other companies in the domain might need the same /similar product/service and might not even need altering/customization.

Time to market could be minimal thus the cash flow could start much sooner than otherwise.

Learning of the entrepreneur would be in a less risky arena because while the first order is being processes, other experiments can be comfortably carried out.

The crucial initial journey would be slightly less lonely.

Can you think of more points here?

All in all, we Rodinhooders can work towards insanely increasing the possibility of success of a startup by taming the defining factors in the success equation.

People like me who are fired, those who are about to quit, those who are sitting on one / many ideas but not sure how to take the leap of faith in entrepreneurship and even those who had lucky experience of starting up and failing earlier… they all can possibly benefit from such a database / platform.

Moreover the confidence that the first success would generate would increase probability of they expanding first venture and/or start more venture and of course.. looking at them, others could be more encouraged.. thus hopefully fueling more entrepreneurship in similar fashion.

Very critically, the cash flow would (I hope) be enough for basic survival of the new enterprise in initial days.

I am very aware that these thoughts are super crude and would need great deal of maturity and hearty dose of practicalness.

Initially I had selfishly thought of doing this ‘homework’ only for myself but then it thought..

NAAAAH ..

Our Rodinhood community together can make this “Super Start Startup Platform” a reality much more faster and thus benefit lot more people in the process.

Reminds me of this quote:

“What do we live for, if it is not to make life less difficult for each other?” – George Eliot

I invite you all to strengthen this baby idea by suggesting which part of it can be improved and how.

Oh, speaking of babies, at the start of the last week I had a gut feeling that it would be a phenomenal week .. I got new professional life and on 19th this month me and my wife were gifted with a boy. I am happy to share both the awesome news with you my dear Rodinhooders. 🙂

Comments

Omkar Nisal

26 Comments

asha chaudhry June 28, 2013, 6:51 am

whoa! that’s a whole lot of stuff to take-in omee!!

i will let other rodinhooders react to your post while i try to get the newsletter out 🙂

i just stopped by to say congratulations on your ‘special delivery’ and blessings to our youngest rodinhooder 🙂

and of course, all the very best for your new professional life… hang in there!
Karan Pandhi June 28, 2013, 7:25 am

Hi Omkar,

Awesome wonderful post, thanks for your ideas and views and points.

Glad to do a bit of homework once again.
Aman Jha June 28, 2013, 7:31 am

Good Idea…

Though the probability of a heads n tails is 50-50 always, with experience n skills, you can achieve the success though probability is 50-50.

I loved the idea… But you will have to find smarter ways to let compnaies know about this concept and rope them in.
Nishant Agrawal June 28, 2013, 8:01 am

I really like your observations on startups. I find it very unsettling that most of the people who quit their jobs to become entrepreneurs have no skill, or clue on what to do. They think that an overdose of passion can make up for lack of skill / knowledge / hard work. For them, becoming an entrepreneur and basking in the glory of their new designation matters far more than any idea. It’s a recipe for disaster.

Becoming an entrepreneur should actually be an inevitable consequence of a person following his passion. Idea / passion comes first. Becoming an entrepreneur should come after that.
Muthu Krishnan June 28, 2013, 9:22 am

Hi Omkar,

A very nice article which showcases the immense amount of understanding you have about startup miseries:). I am sure you might have watched Eric Ries talking about Lean Startup Model @ Google. (One of my favorites I have watched it a dozen times). More than money its TIME that is of higher value in a startup. Make a minimum viable product in the least amount of time possible and test it with real users. No one can say a product is useful than customer himself. (Not even a big company). Google has a big list of failed products to its portfolio. 🙂 Even if I assume that a big company would help a fellow startup guy and give them their idea there is still a high chance of failure because we can never predict the customers interests
Nand Kumar Sherman June 28, 2013, 2:54 pm

Without doubt the quality of the product or service and their marketability are crucial. However one mistake most entrepreneurs make is in not paying enough attention to preparing a solid Business Plan. Most often one is prepared merely for fund raising: no attempt is made to convert that into a working model for day to day operations.

My view is this: prepare the B Plan in full and painful detail. Spend loads of effort in it and be as critical as possible in assessing numbers. Convert the plan into a year on year, quarter on quarter budget, compare performance with the budget, tweak, rework.

Cheers and happy entrepreneuring.
Sudarsan Ravi June 29, 2013, 12:33 pm

Awesome! Good luck for the future. You seem to have quite a bit of experience and definitely have the clarity of thought. I look forward to seeing a post in a couple of years on “How getting fired was the best thing that happened to me?”
Prashant Tripathi June 29, 2013, 4:08 pm

Dude !!! Thats some info..would like to connect to you on this .
Omkar Nisal June 30, 2013, 2:28 am

Surely Prashant, I would be happy to brainstorm. 🙂
Omkar Nisal June 30, 2013, 3:04 am

Thanks Sudarsan. I personally feel I have major learning yet to do, lot of chaos in mind to settle and lot more of clarity to get. But thanks for your compliments. I love them and am grateful for the same.

You will definitely see that post and I already feel its a blessing to get fired.

🙂
Omkar Nisal June 30, 2013, 3:33 am

I had found one nice foster lab business plan template online somewhere and I achieved it here : https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WEYHeYUpIrpXYWhvijFVfhEnSUbzmfYLhNQwNdt3fbI/edit?usp=sharing

I agree its pretty thought provoking and painful as you mentioned.

🙂

Could you kindly share your experience of writing a B Plan for your enterprise and how it evolved and which parts helped at which stage of enterprise building. I believe stories are always more encouraging and ensure more actions by others.
Omkar Nisal June 30, 2013, 3:43 am

Absolutely Muthu.. just like an arrow has to be pulled back and get pressure applied on by the bow.. so has to an entrepreneur survive valley of misery and startup woes first before it can reach the summit of enterprise success and enjoy the rewards of the offbeat journey.

I agree that TIME is the utmost valuable currency we have in our life. Limited and unknown quantity. 🙂

I wholeheartedly agree that usefulness to (or buzzword.. user engagement of) the end user is ultimate deciding / evaluating factor.

I haven’t watched.. but as I type this I now I am watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEvKo90qBns I believe this is what you are referring to. If not please do share the link.
Muthu Krishnan June 30, 2013, 3:55 am

Yes exactly. That was the video I was referring to. I ll embed the video for others who have’t yet watched it. 🙂
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:20 pm

Thanks a lot Asha. 🙂
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:21 pm

Thanks Karan,

I didnt understand the homework point. Can you please explain?
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:22 pm

Hey Aman,

Glad you liked the idea and it was nice to connect with you on phone.
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:24 pm

Very true Nishant. its pretty unsettling. But thats not how we common people are programmed.

I hope it changes at least for few thousand people in the world.
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:25 pm

This is splendid video Muthu. Thanks a ton for sharing it.
Omkar Nisal July 2, 2013, 8:25 pm

hey Prashant it was nice to connect with you on the phone. Cheers
Devdatta Puntambekar July 3, 2013, 6:32 am

Nice one Omkar!!

Its been a long time since our last meeting. Lets meet some time. 🙂
Sanjeev Tewari July 14, 2013, 10:58 am

Interesting Post .Here are my two cents :

1.Do what you have been doing .You were paid for doing something great in whatever field you come from .Keep doing it for some more time .Rework with your employer/past employer and create fixed price/part time or milestone based engagement/s than 8 hrs/day job ..optionally you can offer your services to startups/mid size firms in your domain .Now time is yours and home fire keeps burning .this helps you in 2 ways.1.You sleep peacefully 2.You don’t have clock ticking for you ,your start up can …absorb any iterations or delays: 6 months to 6 years .

just in case destiny has chosen otherwise you can go back to employer/s and showcase your relevance and experience gained .

2. Test market your idea/product :check with 10 people from target marketplace if they would find your product interesting(Why and Why not ??) leave alone whether they would buy or not .

3.Be a business person,listen to devil’s advocates and keep eyes /ears and feet on the ground , it helps .

3.take people along:if you are a good team player and can sell your concept in its early stage to friends, colleagues, your wife’s uncle’s cousin’s nephew(deep pockets or guru in your target market) and can live with people ( i am sorry i can’t ) take people along.

I read somewhere ‘start a business, you would like to run after 10 years too’ .Avoid short cuts .

Thanks
prachi shukla July 14, 2013, 4:48 pm

i am student of EDI. we daily learn possibility of success and failures of startup. i am yet to figure out exact blueprint of my idea,but having passion is what matters. your insight on startups is really helpful. hope to learn more from you and fellow rodinhooders.

cheers 🙂
Omkar Nisal July 17, 2013, 5:44 am

Thanks for your very practical suggestions Sanjeev. I am pondering over them. cheers.
Omkar Nisal July 17, 2013, 5:45 am

Best wishes for your studies Prachi .. both at the institute as well as in life. 🙂
Manish Nasa July 17, 2013, 8:32 am

Dada, I didn’t know you were here 🙂

You may not remember this, but I still remember the Advance course in 2007 where I learned about your project for blind people. I still think it’s a good idea, sad to know it didn’t work out.

Cheers to you and to your forthcoming ventures 🙂 and congratulations on the second baby!!
Omkar Nisal July 17, 2013, 12:51 pm

Jai Gurudev!!

Good to see you here Manish !!

Thank you so much.:)

Glad you remember the project buddy. hope to meet you up soon.