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Alok's Posts / Startup

2012 – Predictions please ?

Wanted to put down some ideas on what may happen in 2012 and also invite suggestions from readers.

 

Let’s seal this post on the 1st of Jan 2012 and then keep reviewing it over the years.

 

What I predict is penned below. If you have cool predictions that you add as comments, I will edit the body copy and add your name and stuff. Please follow the template below:

 

Alok Rodinhood Kejriwal predicts:

 

Event:

 

Facebook will price itself between the 100-110 billion $ valuation mark. It will list at 130 Billion and gradually move up to 170-190 Billion by the year 2012.

 

Why?

 

Because facebook has changed humanity forever. And if you change humanity (like building the first car in the world (Ford), or finding oil etc), then there is no valuation limit that can be put on you unless you really screw things up

 

Event:

 

Zynga will list at 10 US$ Billion, drop to 8 or so and then slowly creep back to 11-12 by the end of 2012

 

Why?

 

Zynga has recreated Casual Gaming. Its got a strong pipeline of games on FB and as that market matures, they will be strong on Mobile and Apps. Also, Zynga will be benchmarked to Dena and Gree (of Japan) so its valuations will be intact. Also it has the top line to show this value.

 

Event

 

There will be a massive BUST of e-commerce sites in India

 

Why?

 

Because, once everyone is over the ‘wow the delivery came to me in 2 days’ and the price discounts go away and competitors look and service the same – there will be a question of the Business Model – NOT Business HYPE

 

Event

 

Lots of the travel portals ‘pretending’ to mimic the MakeMyTrip listing on nasdaq will have to wait long or forever

 

Why

 

Competition. I mean why shouldn’t Flipkart sell online tickets? And why should loss making, also ran travel portals get listed in stock markets that are intrinsically weak?

 

Event

 

Some major business models and Companies will emerge on Android – on the Trade and Enterprise side

 

Why

 

As Indian white collar professionals (sales people etc) get handsets that can let them share their sales funnels, market information, minute on minute business data, lots of Companies will love to work on platforms and products that improve business performance.

 

Think of a new ‘Tally’ (accounting software) revolution of the 90’s appearing on the mobile android enterprise market

***

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Event

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5 Comments

  1. though i hate short term predictions….but i will still like to keep my neck on the block on these events…

     

    Property markets in India will gather downward momentum

     

    Many companies will look hollow….pantaloon,dlf,JP group ,Tv 18 group ,ADAG,ndtv and Utv soft owned by disney will be incurring heavy losses on their balance sheet

     

    short term rally in stocks around the world which may or may not fizzle out by the end of 2012

     

    it will lead to hyper inflation around the world

     

    India will start looking like a basket case by the end 2012

     

    Zynga ,Alok’s faviorte company, will look another groupon case

     

    India gdp rate will  average around 6 or below 6%

     

    Usa will start looking like another Greece so stay away from all infosys ,tcs and the software world

     

    My faviorte stocks in the indian market….glaxo,gillete,colgate,lever…..buy more of these and secure your future…and do invest in fixed deposits…

    and stay away from all dotcoms…ecommerce or gaming ,they all r over hyped because of mobile revolution…but its not easy to make money money out of it

     

     AND ALOK WILL BE ASKED BY HIS VC TO SPEND MORE TIME ON G2w THEN FACEBOOK AND ROBINHOOD…….

    Sorry Alok ! I had to write something to bug you….

  2. Event

    Online Advertising in India would gain Momentum. To put specifically, the Online Media budget of Businesses would witness positive tilt.

    Why

    The reason is simple.

    Rise in Demand

    1. Internet Population is  growing in India like never before. More  Internet Users implies more and more pageviews.
    2. People are now less hesitant in Spending Money Online

    Rise in Supply

    1. As pointed by Alok above, E-Commerce portals would flock the web and so would other categories portals like Travel and News. The cheapest and easiest way for them to get noticed is via Online Ads.
    2. Online ads provide a better guarantee of  Sale compared to other media and sooner or later Indian business would realize this and increase their online Wallet.


  3. Rodinhood to reach 10,000 members

    Reasons: We have 1000+ active members,each bring 10 people then we are sure to reach there. I see everyone bringing people at least in an year.

    God willing Techshu to go to next orbit

    We getting atleast one major product online, will have to which will have great impact on web marketing related work.

    Reason:

    I dreamed about it for over 8 years, working on it for last 7 years, 2012 shall consolidate it and make it work. Let’s seal it and lets come back to it after an year to see where we are.

  4. Event :Rise of a  whole new breed of entrepreneurship in (if) global slowdown 

    Why : coz it all began with https://rodinhood.com

  5. aji – i’m afraid we didn’t touch the 10k mark – we are 4157 and counting members…

    but i won’t be surprised if we achieve this figure this year 🙂

    how did techshu fair???

    yes, i’m nudging you to share something with us in the near future…. 🙂

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