You know what invalidates any argument, any reason & any logic? (from a famous Internet Meme)
“Two camels in a tiny car“
That’s right folks two angry camels in small Suzuki 800 hatchback. It’s impossible, it’s preposterous and it’s ridiculous. It goes beyond the reason, rational way of thought and logic. Only response to it is…. WTF!? 🙂
Today No 5 year or 10 year planning can be Done without considering the law of accelerating returns in mind. Technological growth is exponential every bleeding edge hardware technology created today will become trivial in 3 years and obsolete in 5 years. So any argument we put for future can be invalidated by technology.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they got bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming (Link: singularity university summit, Read for more insight). They said Artificial Intelligence is grander then natural stupidity. But we miss a point that Human mind and computer are evolved differently. They are great at doing completely different tasks, Computers for decades were already powerful enough for doing computational work. But they failed at pattern recognition. But now Google and Facebook algorithms and computational power is matching human capacity in reading patterns reading images, reading natural text (not programming languages). It’s the law of accelerating returns and human mind can comprehend linear growth not accelerating growth.
We humans love to do things be it anything from Knitting a sweater to growing and maintaining 10 feet long hair. Karma makes me Busy, Sane and Waking us up early for the next day. Karma keeps me occupied of the things we do, Karma makes me fit, karma makes me get a good nights sleep. I know I will not sleep well if I am not tired enough from my work. Humans are born to do something, most of us can not sit ideal. Karma can be anything from playing football, weaving flowers, cooking meals, gardening, full-time office jobs or rock-climbing. But things are changing fast. We could see disruptions everywhere right now. The concept of Jobs and work is changing and it’s changing fast. As the automation leads to next decade 2020 we will see many jobs many entry level and mid-level semi-skilled ones disappearing.
From a personal point of view I work in an IT company (with development, implementation & support) and my senior boss says what development team is doing to make implementation team out of work. His Point of view is clear. Development team please automate implementation teams work.
Question: So when My job is automated what will I do?
I seriously Do not know. (Personally I will be playing a lot of video games, reading books, watching too many movies, have a child and make him prepare for UPSC along with eating my meals if can afford all of them)
In the past Mechanical automation and spawning of new industries has created more job then it destroyed so effects where negligible. But many Billion dollar technology companies are already running with the staff of less than 100 people (e.g. whatsapp which runs its entire messaging infra with the staff of 60 people) This trend will only grow. There will be handful of these high skill well paid individuals in these companies producing goods and services for the entire mass.
This is a 5 Rs medium snack packet by Branded Haldiram’s (Noida) with a toy inside. This is made in heavily automated environment. 5 Rs includes Fixed cost, logistics, Margins, floating costs, raw material and everything. This is the future Sirji. Only if you could know that you will have even 5 Rs cash flow that point of time. Dear Mr Service Class guy.
So are we (private Job holders, Small businesses, oligopolies & States) doomed???: I am 100% sure that bigger governments (like India, China) are safe but many small countries will have chaos. There will be a big social anomaly due to automation. Economic gaps with human nature of ambition and greed will create havoc. Imagine a social structure where a man with more ability is treated same as man with no ability and only some of his peers get a lot in the life. 1000’s of deserving people fight for single opportunity created in the workforce. It will be chaotic. Keeping a government job is the best bet, Since they will control the resources along with some businessmen.
It will be just like cutting edge software teams of IT companies where keeping the entire team happy will be very difficult for the manager working with limited budget and attrition (defiance) will happen.
Obama 12 Oct 2016 Interview with Wired Magazine:
Post capitalist society:
Post capitalism is already coming up in Denmark. (which includes minimum basic income for each individual despite of his / her employment status) Sweden is reducing the work hours by 6 hours per day to keep more people into the jobs. Many developed countries are ponder to the concept of Jobless economy, Gandhian economy.
Private sector employees are already have other issues going with business class and government regime. Automation will put a death knell to careers of many executives and entry level career professionals. In future a little cash flow will be enough to keep some one sustaining a decent life style (including car and house). But can not say that about No Cash flow.
My conclusion driven by Game Theory: That’s Why I advocate My friends for government jobs (including the petty ones) for 30 year job security. Don’t start a Business without keeping the exponential technology in mind.