Hello All,
So we know TheRodinhoods reached the Magical Number of 5,000 members last week!
In one of my casual discussions with Asha, she asked me to Predict when we would hit the Next Magical number. I will acknowledge – it is one of the toughest Question any one has asked me in a while. It is not easy to estimate this as there is a “compounding” factor with Viral growth that is hard to Calculate. As you can imagine, there are top level Analysts in the industry working to crack this..
Hey I am not an Analyst, but I like Challenges, and I like to base my facts on DATA & DATA ONLY.
So I took a stab at it with my cow boy math. My Prediction came to 10,277 members in 10 Months. Below is how I approached –
Current Community size = 5000
- I am estimating approximately 5% of the community to recommend and bring in 2 new people every two months.
- 5% of the people = 250 users. In two months cycle they would recommend 2 people which = 500. So total Rodinhood users will be 5000 + 500 = 5,500.
- I am estimating a 5% Organic growth (such as coming from search). So total would be 5,775
- At this Rate, at the end of 10 months Rodinhoods will have 10,277 new members.
The above is by no means the most accurate way to estimate. It is Directional and above all intended to showcase the “thought process”. This is how every Entrepreneurs should approach their Business!
So the Challenge to all my friends in Rodinhoods is to “Predict when we would hit the Magical number of 10,000 users”. As we are all Entrepreneurs here, or aspiring to be one, would be great to see how each of you would approach this scenario & support it with Data.
Way to Go RODINHOODERS! Looking forward to seeing some interesting approaches!
Aneja
asha chaudhry
thanks for this aneja!
as promised, there is something to be won here…!
PRIZE FOR THE CLOSEST CORRECT PREDICTION: ONE RODINHOOD LAPTOP SKIN!!!
Aneja Raj
Thanks Asha. That is great motivation. So if no one else replies, I am keeping that skin:)
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Asha and Aneja:
Great task for the rodinhoods!
I would like your help on this. Can I have the number of member this community had in February 2013 and November 2012.
It would be helpful.
I would like to try out.
As Aneja rightly said… Facts should be based on DATA only!!
Cheers!
Tejas
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hi Aneja, My small calculation. I liked your way of calculation, but I am slightly off track this time around. Simple statistics! But for that I making a big assumption! I have assumed we had reached 2500 members in May-2012. I hope this is realistic. Now. we will have Date Values as
Nov 2010 – 0 members
May 2012 – 2500 members
May 2 – 5000
Close to what Anjeja said!
waiting for other exciting answers on this!
asha chaudhry
tejas…
sorry couldn’t get back to you sooner – according to this post (dec 24, 2012) – we were nearly 4000 members then – https://www.therodinhoods.com/forum/topics/therodinhoods-needs-flashy-people-and-other-volunteers
hope this helps!
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hey Asha, Thank you so much.
I appreciate your help.
Revised Calculations…. This time it would take 2 more months.
Anil Soni
When I joined on Oct,12 Rodinhood than there were approx 3000 members. Now it is 5000 in May,13. I am not good in mathmetics but I can do following scenario analysis as per my experience. So we can consider following growth phase.
Date Members Difference %Growth
Nov-10 0
Oct-12 3000 3000
May-13 5000 2000 67% in 7 month (consider it is as super natural growth period)
Dec-13 10000 5000 100% in 7 month ( assume more than super natural growth)
We can consider more than a super natural growth period because more graduate and post graduate will pass out from their college, if a small amount of them will think of entrepreneurship than they will definitely come to know about Rodinhood.
So if I assume 100% growth rate in next 6-7 month then we can see more than 10000 members in till Dec-13 – Jan-14.
Prashant Chanchal
An interesting one this and already a couple of thoughtful responses. 13-14 months looks way to long.
I’m heavily bullish on this. And my prediction is 5-6 months (can someone keep track so in case I win, I get my goodies :P).
I’m not basing the prediction on any data here for simple reasons that I felt the data points are too less and weak to work out the solution with. We’re talking about virility here. Viral growth hacking is different stuff something beyond calculations and predictions that has betrayed the analysts in past and by a grand margin. Talk of Dropbox, talk of Air BnB.
On a lighter note: You never know, very soon, one of us 5000 (assuming 1% of the members are the ones decently established players having a decent presence in the market) makes it super-big (2% of that 1%, most pessimistic approach), one fine day some time soon, they talk about the rodinhoods to media, the prints in significantly devoted manner, about how trds is helping entrepreneurs out, and boom we have a sudden rise.
With all respect and love to all members.
Prashant
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Well said Prashant.
I just thought about going with a statistical approach because Aneja already gave a thoughtful and non-statistical answer to the problem.
Even I hope I am wrong this time, and we reach the figure of 10,000 as soon as possible!
Cheers!
Tejas
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Oct 2012- 3000
Dec 2012- 4000
May 2013- 5000!!
This is highly erratic for statistical calculation! I guess Aneja’s approach is a better option in these cases.
Anyways, a good statistical method Anil..
Cheers!
Tejas
Mitesh Muley
I wont go too much in details. But looking from the past, I have strong hunch that in another 7 to 10 months we would have more then 10,000 members. If Virality effect comes into picture then I might get wrong and we would have 10,000 before December this year.
Aneja Raj
Good approach Tejas. Nice way to go about this.
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Thank you Aneja..
Just some basic school level stats…
It is amazing how our answers matched, especially when the techniques used were completely different. 🙂
Anil Soni
Being an entrepreneur from traditional business family I have guessed only by using the simple age old method. There were not any maths in it. I do not even understand maths.
Mathematical formula only works in the book. There is no math for calculating the human behavior or psychology.
If mathematics formula could have succeeded than “Lehmon Brother would not collapse”. Even brightest Harvard graduate were calculating economic growth of US in luxury office but ground reality was far from their calculation.
A layman can not understand these maths and excel sheet and ultimately entrepreneur has to deal with the common man on the ground level.
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
yeah.. well said…
But if you see..we have adopted the same method.
I took virality factor as 1.5 to 2…
and you assumed that the growth will be from 67% to 100%.
Now if we go by your assumption it will be 20.8*(1-0.67) = 20.8*0.33 = 6.864!!
exactly between 6 to 7 months as you told!!
You were very bullish, I was lil less..
Business and maths go hand in hand as long as the things are kept simple!
🙂 🙂
Problem comes when we try to complicate it!
Cheers!
Tejas
Raz
Someone should try applying the learning curve method in their forecasts.
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
I gave this challenge to one of my friends in my company and then he came up with this simple and short logic!
This is what Mr Prashant has to say..
***December 2012- 4000
May 2013 – 5000
In 5 months we have 1000 people joining.
Now I am assuming that, growth will be 1000 in 3 months(average)!
That means 5000 in 15 months!!***
Let me know your views on this calculation done by my friend!
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hi Raza Sir,
If we assume X axis to be the time taken and Y axis to be the number of users registering in the Learninig Curve method.
I think we have still not reached that stage of exponential growth. Also, stagnancy is out of question.
(Orkut is a best example for stagnant part of the learning curve method, while FB conitnues to have a long learning curve)
Let me know your views on this. I tried to find a mathematical formulae but again, different results for different eco systems I guess!!
Cheers!
Tejas
Mohit Khurana
Hi Aneja,
I have done a basic modelling – basis what your assumptions, just to make the prediction a forecast and not just a prediction 😉
Okay, so here are a few mods I have done to your approach:
Why did I assume 1% – The reason for considering a low churn are:
Here is what I have not changed:
I have also attached my Excel file that has the calculations.
Mohit (Proud owner of dhakkanz.com)
Pawan Deokule
Forecasting is always an interesting topic.
Sorry about using the easiest method available, but here is my contribution to forecasting 10000 users: –
Optimistic Approach: March 2014
Pessimistic Approach: September 2014
I had 4 datapoints from your interactions:
5000
I created a line graph in excel and drew two kinds of trends, logarithmic (more realistic) and exponential (optimistic) for different period of moving data-points.
The mid-point seems to be a 4 period (Nov to May) trend. I received a trend closing 10000 on July 2014. Which lies between both the earlier numbers achieved through the same method.
The entire calculation took 3 minutes and writing this down took 5 minutes. The point I am drawing here is it is not important as to when 10000 will be achieved, what is important is how fast can we achieve it.
Hence the above calculations tell us that 10000 can be achieved by July 2014 irrespective of any external force; but if we can do something about it (we are entrepreneurs after all) then we should achieve this number way before that date.
Hence forecasting is only to create a base against your work and not an absolute.
Aneja Raj
Very nice approach! Love it
Mohit Khurana
Thanks man!
asha chaudhry
aneja… i’m a little awestruck by the kind (and variety) of responses we’re getting!!!
Tarun
Cutting down all the calculation hereby I declare that trhs will touch the magical figure of 10k in the last week of November 2013 🙂
For this much accuracy will i get two gifts 🙂
asha chaudhry
:)))))))))))
you’re a riot tarun!!!
Aneja Raj
100% agreed data. It so great to see estimate supported by data
Mohit Khurana
Asha, when are the results getting declared?
Mohit
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hi All, I just thought of putting down all the figures recieved till now so that it would be easy for us to see all the predictions at one go… Now for people who have said x to y months, I have just taken the average.
Here goes the results till now!! (Correct me if I am wrong anywhere Asha)
10,000
Hoping to get more interesting ways to get this one!!
asha chaudhry
tejas… you are a rockstar!!!
asha chaudhry
mohit!!!!!!!!!!!!
minus marks for you 🙁
arre bhai, when we reach 10k members then only the results will be declared naa????
facepalm!
Aneja Raj
You are Awesome! Thanks for compiling.
Jack John
7000 November 2013
10,000 July 2014
13000 By December 2014
I don’t have any calculation just on instinct 🙂
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Thank you Asha.. 🙂 🙂
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Thank you Aneja.. 🙂 🙂
Mohit Khurana
:O 🙁
asha chaudhry
:)))))))
Aneja Raj
Lets pray we get their sooner than later:)
Amit Mishra
Good to see some good use of mathematics, analytics and psychology but why dont we work on how to reach that number rather when to reach it.
There are at least 10,00,000 guys passing out every year from engg. colleges + a similar number in others.
This is a huge and highly aspirational population who can a learn from the Rodinhoods platform. I am sure they can learn a lot here.
The other TG i.e. the already working professionals can also learn so hypothetically we can take a rough .1% of more than 15cr of the white collar professionals planning to do something on their own. They again be benefited through experiences and learning shared here.
Lets give ourselves a target to achieve 10k by October. An easy number to achieve.
What you guys say??
Aneja Raj
Nice point Amit. Setting targets should always be part of your business. But you should also have a Plan in place to achieve that target. The plan must be supported by research, insights, data and analysis.
Amit Mishra
The RAID( Research Analysis Insights Data) was already done by the intelligent mathematics champs but I just thought we should do some action too.
Lets just start with introducing just 5 of our friends to Rodinhoods, I am sure 10000 is not a big number to achieve then.
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hi Amit.
I do not know if this is relevant. But what do we want here.
To get as many members as possible or to get members who would be active. We do not want to be another Orkut.
Sustainability is the key here.
You know what, I just did what you told. I showed it to 4 of my team mates in my office.
And guess what, they found the discussion topics boring whereas I found them exciting.
We would want 5000 people more, but 5000 interested ones!!
Sorry if this was a digression! Cheers!
Tejas
Aneja Raj
Good point Tejas. Sustainability is a key factor. Consolidate your base first and then expand.
Amit Mishra
Hi Tejas,
I agree to your deduction but I thought as intelligent entrepreneurs we know there has to be a TG for any platform/product/service. For RHs, its people who want to do something on their own and as you will notice the numbers I shared was just a fraction of the whole population.
Not everyone can be an entrepreneur and not everyone should be. I am sure we can find 5 people in next 6 months who we think would get benefited from the platform. This is not a product we can sell or we should sell everywhere, its just a platform to share learnings/experiences.. We can just become mediums of sharing with others who might need that advice. If someone don’t see value here, so be it.
Sustainability and precision in strategy is important for everything.
I hope you understand my point.
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Aneja: Thanks 🙂
Amit: So finally from two of your comments and the final one I could make out that we are trying to make the same point. Your approach was to put forward the blog to everyone and ask them to sign up. The intent was great, no doubt, but as Aneja said. The base has to be consolidated.
Now, in my view, experience has to be the base of this as entrepreneurship is all about learning from the experience. (Probably thats why we love Alok’s posts!)
What I feel here is, we should be targetting more entrepreneurs. The ones who have started. The ones who have succeeded. The ones who have failed. Everyone. What this would do.
1) The quality of posts and the discussions would go high.
2) People would respond to Ask questions. (I see some of the Ask Questions getting no replies)
3) We would have a “better pool” to learn from.
4) This may attract real people here. People who would really love to read, write and comment. Share. This would create larger percentage of active members. Even if that enables slow growth, be it. Doesnt matter.
I do not believe in “bhashan-baji” and I do not have enough contacts to get big shot people here.
But there are some people we can definitely approach, so that they would join us here and become active member.
Nishant Parashar and Arati Parashar from Engage4more
Neha Juneja and Ankit Mathur from Greenway Grameen Infra
Varun Khurana Sunil Goyal Lomesh Dutta from Wirkle
Pulkit Kaur from Gridbots
Sharat Potharaju and Ravi Pratap M from MobileMotion Technologies.
These are some of the young entrepreneurs who have successfully started and made it big. I am sure their guns are loaded with a lot of experience. We should just approach them and make sure they fire everything they have towards us!!
I hope Asha reads this comment. But we all should realize it is a collective efforts(and not only Editor’s) which would enable us to reach that magical figure with magical people!!!
Thanks!
Amit Mishra
Hi Tejas,
Thanks for detailing out your thoughts.
I agree to all the points and we have been actively working in Delhi to create these things through offline meetings too.
We need to build a sustainable and crowd sourced community where content as well as action is done..
You can read about the last one we did here
https://www.therodinhoods.com/forum/topics/how-to-hunt-for-the-right-talent-for-your-start-up-1
I am sure the difference we are trying to make will help people in the real sense and not just gyaan,
PS – I would have loved to share more details which I would love to do over phone. Typing with one hand is a bit of a challenge. 🙂
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Hi Amit. I read it. It was wonderful effort from you guys!
Get well soon Sir!!
It was a nice discussion with you.
Hope to have many more. Take Care. 🙂
Amit Mishra
Thanks Tejas. It was good bumping into you and Aneja through this post.
Do let me know if you plan to come to Delhi anytime. 🙂
Stay Blessed and keep Rodinhooding!!!
Tejas Vishnu Nimbargi
Sure thing Amit! 🙂 Take care….
asha chaudhry
we’re on 5401 members as we speak….
thought i’d let you all know!!!
🙂
Darshan Bhambiru
Hahahahahahaha!!!!
Awesome!!!
Now We are a chock full House of 5000 strong Entrepreneurs and HERE we have a Challenge to simply touch 10,000
If each Entrepreneur Just gets 1 More Entrepreneur this could happen Tomorrow!!!!
When an Entrepreneur is challenged that’s when it Utterly Predictable that Something will Happen for Sure, hence Taking in to consideration not all Entrepreneurs login Daily too and we have 5000 Entrepreneurs, It is exponential growth, not the Straight line growth as when reaching the earlier mark we are at now.
Hence Monsoon, Traffic, Connectivity, Snowden, not withstanding the occasional Lighting strike We should Celebrate the 10,000 RodinHooders By the End of July Latest!!! If all feel the same way that is…
Then after all it is a Challenge which each needs to take on oneself and prove it too 😀
Analytic’s, Statistics and Maths would not work in case of Adding serious Entrepreneurs here, only Members who have FELT this Environment and have been here sometime Would be able to pass the same to others which would get Viral in a way, Time would be the last factor here, Cheers to Entrepreneurship!!!
Thodi aur Pyaas Badhao!!!
Aneja Raj
That is not bad..Looks like we are on target with projections
asha chaudhry
hey folks,
5706 members. so that means we’re averaging 10 new members a day!
asha chaudhry
6121… thought i’d update!!
asha chaudhry
we are 6514 now….!
asha chaudhry
6907 on jan 2, 2014….!!!
just updating 🙂
happy new year folks!
Aneja Raj
So 3000 to go by end of March per the original article estimate… lets see:) Thank you for keeping track Asha. Happy new year to all at Rodinhoods!!!
asha chaudhry
7113 members as of today – 3rd feb 2014….
have we slowed down? we used to average 300-500 a month!
asha chaudhry
7500!!!
slow and steady….
asha chaudhry
hello, hello!!
8039 as on july 18, 2014 !!!!
Jack John
We should reach by OCTOBER 2014
asha chaudhry
it’s nov 6 and we are 8600 members 🙂
thought i’d update all ye good folks!!!
asha chaudhry
dec 19 – 8804 🙂
Karan Pandhi
I think 10,000 by March or April 2015
Darshan Bhambiru
9000 – Strong Rodinhooders today 🙂 10 Feb, 2015
Reaching there!!! 🙂
asha chaudhry
hi all,
update april 28, 2015 – we’re now 9400!
asha chaudhry
HEY ALL,
DAY BEFORE Y’DAY WE HIT 10K! was anyone close to the mark?!
🙂