Hello All,
So we know TheRodinhoods reached the Magical Number of 5,000 members last week!
In one of my casual discussions with Asha, she asked me to Predict when we would hit the Next Magical number. I will acknowledge – it is one of the toughest Question any one has asked me in a while. It is not easy to estimate this as there is a “compounding” factor with Viral growth that is hard to Calculate. As you can imagine, there are top level Analysts in the industry working to crack this..
Hey I am not an Analyst, but I like Challenges, and I like to base my facts on DATA & DATA ONLY.
So I took a stab at it with my cow boy math. My Prediction came to 10,277 members in 10 Months. Below is how I approached –
Current Community size = 5000
- I am estimating approximately 5% of the community to recommend and bring in 2 new people every two months.
- 5% of the people = 250 users. In two months cycle they would recommend 2 people which = 500. So total Rodinhood users will be 5000 + 500 = 5,500.
- I am estimating a 5% Organic growth (such as coming from search). So total would be 5,775
- At this Rate, at the end of 10 months Rodinhoods will have 10,277 new members.
The above is by no means the most accurate way to estimate. It is Directional and above all intended to showcase the “thought process”. This is how every Entrepreneurs should approach their Business!
So the Challenge to all my friends in Rodinhoods is to “Predict when we would hit the Magical number of 10,000 users”. As we are all Entrepreneurs here, or aspiring to be one, would be great to see how each of you would approach this scenario & support it with Data.
Way to Go RODINHOODERS! Looking forward to seeing some interesting approaches!
Aneja