We survived the Mayan conspiracy, 21st Dec 2012, the doomsday. All the mayhem and predictions and people storing supplies and hiding in bunkers… everything is gone, over.
And then the joke turned out to be that the Mayans round wheel calendar had no space left to continue with the years… hmmm.
If you think about it, it was actually a big joke on us, our minds, in the way we think and on our existence.
Games people play
Prediction has always been a favorite pastime. Anyone and everyone indulges in this game. Big or small, short term or long term, it is not easy to escape a tendency to predict the future.
Corporations, governments and many other entities, organisations plan their existence on predictions.
2013, 2020, 2050, the 21st century – all have become subjects of prediction.
Some of these turn out right making heroes of the one who made them, others teach us a sound lesson (which we conveniently forget).
Can we really do it?
I am really not sure about how do we predict and how much of a science it is.
In the modern world, the pace at which several variables collide with each other is just too fast. So fast, that we do not know what could change or impact what we think will happen.
My favorite one comes from Peter Bernstein. In his book Against the Gods – The remarkable story of risk, he says that a cyclone today could be the magnified impact of the flutter of the wings of a butterfly that happened thousands of years ago. (slightly modified from the original)
The best way to predict future
For me, the only prediction that i can make with certainty is about NOW. What you do now results in the future. The simple theory that I base my life on.
So, instead of predicting what will happen in 2013 or 2020, set a BIG goal for yourself and then diligently work towards making it a reality.
Peter Drucker, the guru of management, backs it by putting in the final punch, “the best way to predict the future is to create it”.
That is one method I surely do +1. Go for it.
This post originally appeared on the Learning Infinite Blog.
Image courtesy: Uta.edu
Sridhar V
In business predicting future with 100% accuracy is practically not possible. However, one can make estimates or forecasts, which are prone to a certain degree of error.
But if we look at real life business situations whether its stock market gurus, management consultants or technology specialist on TV, in meetings, etc the impression created is completely opposite. They act as if they can exactly tell you what the price of a stock in Dec 2013 will be like, or how smart phones are going to become necessities like food, clothing, etc. Past trends have an impact on current and future trends, but its not easy to just put a trend line and predict what will happen in future. One must also take the economic, political, regulatory and other dynamics in to account. It is possible to make estimates for a year or two but beyond that its just a sophisticated guesswork (not professional forecast) unless it is backed by facts or data about future possibilities.