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You can Sense the Aroma of Coffee when it is being Brewed……

By Gurpreet Singh Tikku on 22 Comments / 5894 views

coffeeinhaleImage Source https://www.facebook.com/surfexcelmatic

 

Yes……We sense things when they are about to come……..The Peacocks Dance before Rain, The Birds start chirping before Storm, Animals run Helter Skelter before an Earthquake comes and many many more.

 

Similarly, we humans can see what’s about to coming from the environment and developments around us.

 

If it’s Rains while going home we expecting that Pakoras would be ready when we reach home, after a Good Quarter Results, We would expect that the Boss would treat us for a Beer today and When India Wins an Exciting Cricket Match we know that the first half of the office time would be devoted to VVS Laxman’s Batting and Munaf Patel’s Bowling …… Some times it’s true and Some Times…It is not. But we don’t stop Assuming.

 

When I was a Student, I noticed an over flow of Advertisements on TV and Magazines of MS Shoes, owned by one Pawan Sachdeva. After a Month, MS Shoes East Ltd. announced its IPO. And then, I could understand that a base was being created by them through this mass Advertising.

 

After that, I started to preempt things by the happenings around and most of them came true.

 

This Sunday while watching “Ek Tha Tiger”, I saw a Long ADVERTISEMENT of a Finance and Brokerage company Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. This looked strange as I read a week before that most of the Brokerage firms are gasping for breath in this kind of Markets. Before I could finish gasping on such a long, well made advertisement by a MOSL, another one appeared. This time by Birla Life Insurance Ltd. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OCwisDoBWE&feature=plcp

 

And I looked at my Wife who also happens to be a “Certified Financial Planner” and asked “Is there something we are missing or is there something Cooking that we just got whiff of?” She nodded in affirmative.

 

A Person whom I always admire is a Friend’s father…and he use to taught me that…”Agar kaam karna hai to Seengh Ghusa do”, Literally means….If you want to do or learn any new work, then Put your horns inside and start Participating/Observing, Playing and get the Knowledge”. When the time is right and the Game is BIG, Then only the players who are in the field will WIN and not the ones who are outside and are contemplating to enter then.

 

Similarly, MOSFL and BIRLA has realized that this is the Right time for an upswing and the earlier they start getting refreshed in their customers mind, the better.

 

They surely know something that we don’t do.

 

And then it stayed on in my mind and I realized some more points in favour of a long awaited uptrend in the Indian Economy and Stock Markets.
Image Source:Central Chronicle and IBN Live. Design And Execution-Self
(Interest and Intent Quote Borrowed/Learnt from Alok Rodinhood Kejriwal)

 

    • Mr Pranab Mukherjee being elevated as the President of India and Mr Chidambaram being the New Finance Minister has brought a smile to many a face. Especially one related to Indian Industry and Commerce. A Friend of mine privy to some government happenings mentioned that the Finance Ministry officials have been asked to pull up their socks and start performing…Which means, Controlling the Inflation, Increase Investments and not Savings, Making Changes to optimally utilize the Assets under Governments, Scaling up Disinvestment in PSU’s, Requesting Banks to issue more Consumer Loans etc etc. And the Good News is that it has started happening. Hopefully the results would be out soon.

 

 

mutualfundsImage Source:www.financialbuzz.co.uk

 

    • After the Mutual Funds were introduced in India, more than a decade back to 2008, Mutual Funds  have consistently given 15%  Tax free (if sold after 1 year of buying) Returns on an average till 2008. And then it dropped after the momentary downtrend in the World Economy as well. In India whenever anything goes wrong; many Naysayers crop up and give the Suggestions which are not required. Unfortunately, these are the people sitting on various panels like SEBI, IRDA, TRAI, AMFI etc etc.

 

 

And they concluded that the 2% Entry Charge Levied on the Investor is uncalled for and hence issued a diktat to abolish it and in turn leaving lakhs of Mutual Fund Agents unemployed.

 

Mobilising Money for MF was no longer a Lucrative Option and agents showed Little or no Interest in mobilizing money. This lead to people to SAVE in Fixed Deposits as people finds it easier to invest in a Fixed Deposit in absence of an agent.

 

What we people need to understand is that Savings and Investment are not the same. 

 

saveinvestImage Source:chughsecurities.com
At Current rates pre tax deduction, we get 8% in Fixed Deposit, which is Even 1 percent less than current inflation rate.

 

Coming back to my point….in a recent meeting of Aug 16, SEBI in his ORDER has allowed AMC’s to charge extra from investors and in turn incentivize the Mutual Fund Agents. Frankly Speaking…Consumers were never affected by removing the Entry load, so they would not even Crib when it is levied. This development may again motivate the MF agents to mobilize more money for the AMC’s..

 

 

 

More money would mean more Cash Flow for AMC’s which they WILL have to Plough back in market by buying Stocks which look attractive by the recent hammering. More Buying Should/Could/Would lead to markets looking upward and recreate the interest of retail investors who are waiting in the wings with cash to Invest as and when the Market Sentiment Changes.

 

 

 

The Title of this Blog Says “You can Sense the aroma of Coffee when it is being Brewed”. I mean to say that with these developments, I can smell a Strong Bull Run Coffee being brewed, But Are we prepared to relish it?

 

 If what is Stated above Happens….I want to call it “”Bull Run Coffee””

 

bullruncoffee Image Source:https://heavytable.com

 

Disclaimer:: I am not an Expert in Financial Markets and what I have written here is just based on my Observations. I could be totally Right, or totally wrong. I have written this Blog, just because I felt like expressing my views on this.In January, earlier this year, I wrote a Similar Blog Why February 2012 is the Best Opportunity to Invest!!. Which did not Work. When I posted the Blog, Nifty was at 5190, and touched a High 5564 of and a Low 4849 to reach 5384, where it is today.

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22 Comments

  1. Gurpreet, excellent write-up. I too believe that a lot can be learnt by just observing things around you. I expect Indian markets will enter a new bull market phase in 2013 which should peak with the nifty at 10-12k in a few years thereafter. So, let’s hope you and I both are right 🙂

     

     

  2. In spite of what most people and financial firms tell you about investing, the art of investing requires more common sense than most people imagine. Time will prove your observations right.

  3. ‎Vinay Bhai…Glad that you read it….. I’m not a Person who Should/Can Comment on how Stock markets would behave. I just noticed something and thought of sharing my views. Jo aap keh rahe hai,woh ho jaye to Janta ka bahut bhala ho jayega 🙂

  4. Vinay Bhai….yeh baat aapne sahi kahi. In this Over Educated World…Common Sense is getting Extinct!!

     

  5. Common Sense is not so common guys 🙂

     

  6. Nice write up, GST.

    Here are my comments about this topic.

    a) Brokerage houses and Financial institutions are under terrible financial crunch right now. Business is zero and expenditures are increasing every day. Religare has shut 12 out of 14 offices in NCR. 2 Lakh remisers are shut in Mumbai. 2000 sub brokers of Angel are shut.

    b) Markets are NOT DOWN. Stocks are. Clients are. Stocks are 60-95% down from the prices that they were when Nifty was 5500 in 2007-2008. Nifty is still there, but not the stocks. How is it up? I don’t know. I find this as the mother of all scandals, personally.

    c) People are unable to make money in markets. Come what may, charts are not working on the popular stocks and either side movements are making people confused. Hence traders are loosing money. Investors never made the money.

    d) About advertisements: Well, this could be either a desperate last try or this could be a strategic move given that most financial businesses don’t have the kind of money to spend on advertisements… I don’t think that it is to catch the “big move”…

    e) Indian economy and Indian markets are not in-sync. Economy is doing bad on grass root level, all kinds of businesses are flopping, but still on paper it looks good. That does not show in stocks, even though Sensex is up.

    Summing it up: Sensex is fine, markets are not. People have said NO to all kinds of market. It will take a lot to bring back the confidence of traders… Fancy about markets will return only after confidence stays for a few months.

  7. Pulkit…..Just loved your  Rationale and point by Point Explanation. Gives a new Insight. 
    I agree with you that brokerages are under terrible Financial Crunch. Last I heard Big Players like Angel Broking and Anand Rathi are looking for possible suitors to sell their businesses. And thats exactly the reason why MotilalOsawal advertisement caught my eye.

    Very Valid point you highlight when you say that “MARKETS ARE NOT DOWN, STOCKS ARE” I believe it is more to do with Sentiments than Valuations.

    Hopefully Government will show wherewithal to get things back on the track which should translate into happiness for all :-))  

  8. Dear Gurpreet. 

      Thanks for sharing and by the way today i learnt this from you

    “A Person whom I always admire is a Friend’s father…and he use to taught me that…”Agar kaam karna hai to Seengh Ghusa do”, Literally means….If you want to do or learn any new work, then Put your horns inside and start Participating/Observing, Playing and get the Knowledge”. When the time is right and the Game is BIG, Then only the players who are in the field will WIN and not the ones who are outside and are contemplating to enter then.”

    Thanks a ton

    Thanks

    Sai

  9. Noce One Grupreet ji… The headline really clicked! 🙂

  10. Thanks Anamika Jee.
    I hope that Headline is not Like Salman Khan ki “Ek Tha Tiger”.
    Good enough to get audience to Cinema Hall/Blog…. But no Content :-)))))))))

  11. I haven’t seen Ek Tha Tiger. But in this case headline lead me to the content and the content made me stay till the end. I have picked something really useful for me from this post – “Agar kaam karna hai to Seengh Ghusa do” 🙂

  12. Anamika Jee….Im Glad to read your reply…. 🙂

  13. Raghav Bhai… 2 Cents kya yeh to Billion Dollars hai. Loved your detailed View with Reasons. Totally agree with you that its not the Government problem, but a problem with the opposition and Allies. Something, which I thought would have been eased off in February last year. Refer Why February 2012 is the best opportunity to Invest? 

    And Raghav…… Your Reply deserves to be a complete Blog on your site 🙂
    I am sure many Rodinhooders would gain after reading your reply here.

  14. brethren , awesome views !!!! very impressive .

    an effort to add to what is/has been discussed/ written here : I very sincerely feel that globally their is a huge problem , that we have at hand , but in terms of India , our problem is NOT what is happening in Greece , Italy , Spain and certain other countries . the problem that we have , as a nation , is “corruption” .

    With over 16% of the world population , demographics as amazing as we have – as they say in economics -demographic dividend , inability – no intent of the Govt to do anything (with the only motto – screw and squeeze the nation !!!! ) , we certainly are in a bad state .our ability to consume is PHENOMENAL !!!!!(and that is exactly why so many smart ass business/ retail chains want to enter our country. )

    Inefficiency with in the Govt has brought us where we are , frustrated , infuriated  etc etc . The “supply side” in our nation is screwed , infrastructure is the biggest of our problems today. No roads , no electricity , lack of irrigation system , disparity in policies , no ware housing , to name a few . haven’t spoken about “education” , which is one of the most critical component while one talks of building a nation .

    Anyway , the point is , as a market we are amazing , it just cant get better , if the mentioned areas are worked upon , the day we see roads coming up (ooh , like the yamuna express way !!!! , and i dream ) through the country , where the tax systems are made a lot more efficient , education is available for all etc etc , our confidence shall be restored with in the system , that is the time alot more people will be interested and keen to participate with in the markets (read : bse/nse) , with out that , at 3% of the total population participating , even an FII Fart shall affect us , BIG TIME .

    P.S.: who said we need foreign investment to grow ????? the total loss the the exchequer , broadly , through tenure of this Govt has been : CWG-70k Cr , 2G-1.76 lakh Cr , Coal Gate(Coal Scam): 1.86 Lakh Cr., and so many others !!!!!!!! trust me , with that , One can rebuild America.

  15. Tikku ji, 

    It was really a nice view. I read everything and I am pretty sure that markets would change in coming months.

  16. Thanks Mitesh jee….

    Hopefully it should!!

  17. Ashu,

    I hope and pray that the problems you have shared are taken care of soon and we reach where we all deserve to!!

  18. Good observation Gurpreet! Thanks for writing it for everyone of us.

    And 100 baat ki ek baat – …”Agar kaam karna hai to Seengh Ghusa do”,

    Time to check http://www.ChaiStocks.com  🙂

  19. Milan Bhai……Point Taken…. Thanks 🙂

  20. Milan Bhai, I tried signing up for ChaiStocks.com but when I try to select a PIN, it does not give me a dropdown. There is some error I believe. Please check.
    Regards, Puneet

  21. Gurpreet Bhai, Well-written. Have you ever thought, why does the commoner, start investing when the market has nearing its highs, and why do they start selling, when its nearing its lows. Because a common man is driven by the market voices, the so-called experts on various TV channels telling “BUY BUY BUY” or “SELL SELL SELL” just because unhone apna maal bechna hai…. aur bahar nikalna hai, so that “Aam Aadmi” gets stuck at the wrong levels.

    Investing is a full-time business, and if you don’t have time – it is better NOT to time the market, and start an SIP. These days you can invest systematically in individual stocks as well.

    Regards, Puneet

  22. Puneet, type first three characters of your city and wait for suggestions.

    once U select the city from suggestions, the pins will appear.

    as in investing, signing up on ChaiStocks.com requires patience  😉

    i am sure it will be worth!  🙂

     

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